Some Future Day

Geopolitics, Energy, & Financial Systems: Today's Underlying Power Struggle | with Amy Myers Jaffe

[00:00:00] How do we set up a global system and a global society where we can utilize these technologies for good and still have the guardrails that mean that I stay personally safe? And I just don't think we have the answer to that right now.

[00:00:18] Amy Myers Jaffe is the director of the Energy, Climate Justice, and Sustainability Lab at New York University.

[00:00:27] Amy and I engage in a lengthy two part discussion where we evaluate technology's role in climate change plus the current geopolitical landscape. In this episode, however, we look at macro topics including multiple war fronts. The grab for energy power,

[00:00:47] trade wars, and evaluate how this is impacting areas in the Middle East, Russia, Ukraine, China, Taiwan, and we even get into chaos agents like North Korea.

[00:00:59] I hope that some future day this younger generation will use these technologies to unify against the forces of evil worldwide. And we need to stand up against the use of these technologies in a way that they harm people.

[00:01:17] Amy, thank you so much for joining me on some future day. Your insight and knowledge is invaluable.

[00:01:25] I really appreciate it. So, Amy, if you look at the global landscape today and break down for my audience, what's really happening as it relates to these power struggles surrounding, Nuclear surrounding financial markets and financial systems. It's an interesting landscape. We can move from Russia, Ukraine into the Middle East, and then even eventually, perhaps, hopefully not into the China, Taiwan situation.

[00:02:04] So can you break it out for us as it relates to both the finance, the financial power grab, as well as the energy power grab, please?

[00:02:12] Well, you know, we, we, we imagined that we were going to have sort of a more stable international order moving forward. and people believe that the end of the Cold War was going to bring these very positive results. but what we have now is a very multipolar world where different regional powers, are asserting themselves.

[00:02:33] You've got, a struggle between democracy and authoritarianism. we have just these tensions and, of course, as you mentioned. that these, these struggles for both ideology and, and, you know, raw power, hard power, and financial power, is now moving itself, you know, into concrete wars. So, of course, there's the war between Russia and Ukraine.

[00:03:00] Now, we have the conflict in the Middle East between the Israelis and Hamas, but there's a bigger underlying risk here that comes from having these, what seem to be sort of regional, stale conflicts, you know, Russia and Ukraine's conflict, you know, goes back historically for a long period of time and same with the Arab Israeli conflict.

[00:03:28] Interesting.

[00:03:30] You know, but, but what's happened now is you have coalitions of countries that are challenging United States global leadership and, and the sort of leadership that comes from sort of the alliance of democracies. So, you know, United States, Europe, Japan, South Korea, these countries have traditionally dominated, you know, the world economic scene.

[00:04:01] And and that sort of comp that this sort of global picture was sort of complicated by the fact that you're having the rise. Of, China and India, and other important countries, you know, sort of rising in importance on the global economic scene.

[00:04:19] You have the backdrop of trying to negotiate, you know, how to address climate change on a global cooperative scale and, and you have these. Tensions, you have countries competing over the future markets for clean tech and putting in protective measures in their own countries. You have the U. S. China trade war, which has made cooperation between China and the U.

[00:04:44] S. much more tenuous. You have, you know, the fact that the leader of China, Xi Jinping. Uh, is so widely believed to feel that his legacy has got to be the unification of Taiwan into the Chinese mainland and against the backdrop of what happened with the integration of Hong Kong, and the end of, of human rights in Hong Kong.

[00:05:07] So, you have all these things sort of, you know, floating around and, you know, the lessons of history is that sometimes you can have a triggering event, that can make these sort of stale conflicts. Like, more active, and so, you know, when you look at even the conflict today in the Middle East, you have to consider the backdrop that the Biden administration was about to have, I think, a very large success in expanding the Abraham Accords.

[00:05:38] to include Saudi Arabia, um, and as part of that deal, there was going to be a wide security agreement between Saudi Arabia, Israel, the United States and other allies in the Middle East. And it was going to include a civilian nuclear plant with US assistance to Saudi Arabia. Now, when you step back from that, you know, it's now clear that, of course, that wasn't in Hamas's interest.

[00:06:03] But actually, it wasn't, it was, could have, could be seen as an existential threat to Iran because having two countries, Israel, uh, three countries, Israel, three contries Israel UAE, and Saudi Arabia all have nuclear, civilian nuclear plants. And then the risk that has of a nuclear competition with Iran, which also has, you know, nuclear aspirations, uh, you could see how Iran would become engaged in a negative way in the region.

[00:06:36] And, and, you know, maybe here, not enough guardrails were put in place, for what happened. Because we know that there's a relationship between Iran and Hamas,

[00:06:47] Amy, could you just break down, like, when you talk about the risk to Iran, if these three entities in the region have, um, civilian nuclear capabilities, like, what really is the risk? Like, if it's not weaponry, then why is that, why does that pose a risk to Iran?

[00:07:05] you know, I think the way 1 has to look at civilian nuclear power is that once you're training people in a country, to have the technology and the, and the understanding of running and maintaining the safety of facilities, and if you're having an enrichment program and so forth, even though, you know, guardrails are put in place, It's sort of like a precursor to the possibility of, of making weapons and, you know, that was. The accusation about Iran's program, right? Is the concern. Um, and, and, you know, I'm not equating, you know, uh, 1 with another, but that's a concern all over the world when you start to have, you know. New nations joining the so called, you know, nuclear club, even if it's for civilian use.

[00:07:55] and, you know, we have these conflicts. I mean, you know, right now, everybody's viewing these conflicts as disconnected. but, you know, the United States only has so much capability. And and if the United States gets dragged into, you know, we're already in an active conflict in Europe with NATO having to provide support.

[00:08:20] now we're having to provide support to our allies in the Middle East, and, you know, one could imagine, you know, does this create an opportunity, uh, in some other place, like in North Korea, or does it change the Chinese calculus about how they view their actions in the Asia Pacific? And, you know, one of the things that's come out, you know, which is the most dangerous part, I think, of this whole transaction is this methodology.

[00:08:50] Thank you. That was used by Hamas of infiltrating a country and murdering civilians. this is a frightening technology of warfare in the sense that, you know, take a conflict like the North and South Korean conflict. I mean, I don't know how many of the listeners have been to Seoul. But, you know, the North Koreans themselves have tunnels that they try to build into South Korea.

[00:09:16] And, and I think in South Korea, they've already made statements about their concerns, about how this sort of trained methodology of Hamas could be exported to other conflicts. And, and it's just a very dangerous thing. So I think at this time, you know, the United States and like minded countries really need to take a stand.

[00:09:38] Against the engagement of this kind of warfare, and it represents, I think, just a unique challenge, a very strong challenge. the same way after September 11.

[00:09:51] You know, there was a greater, activation of, counter measures for terrorism in the world. I think this, you know, really could be the same kind of thing. Once we get out of the shock of, uh, watching the horror on TV, you know, understanding A, that we need to resolve stale conflicts, but B, Understanding that the world needs to take a stand on, the kinds of warfare we engage in.

[00:10:19] and then looking at the role of technology in warfare, because a lot of the technologies that we develop to move society forward in a positive way, unfortunately can be utilized. in ways that are unbelievably dangerous,

[00:10:33] So, it's interesting when you talk about resolving these stale conflicts, um, I really don't see who would lead that, those resolutions, who would lead those discussions and negotiations because they've been around in, you know, in certain cases for generations and generations and, um, I just, I don't know how we would get there.

[00:10:55] you know, it does seem very discouraging. I mean, especially because the United States was literally just about to make unbelievable progress in the Middle East. And now we're, you know, in a worst place we were maybe before we started. I think that 1 of the big things that we really need to sort of pin our hopes on.

[00:11:20] Is how do we keep engaged this younger generation and not have them fall into the paradigm of, you know, this history of conflict and bloodshed, that's embraced by, our generation. And, and it's very uphill.

[00:11:38] you think that progress that, um, that we've made over the past few decades in the Middle East is, is lost now? And also, do you think that the deal with, um, Saudi Arabia and Israel and I guess the United States is involved in that as well? Do you think that's also done

[00:11:56] You know, I guess it's going to depend. On, how things move forward, you know, we don't know yet. Real truly, you know, what role did Iran play? What role did other parties play with, you know. I mean, members of Hamas visited Moscow, members from Hamas visited China, members of Hamas visited Iran.

[00:12:21] We, we don't. Understand fully. what was involved and I think it'll be a long time before, um, before some, some of these positions become clear. it's hard. To resolve issues when you're, you know, sort of dealing in this sort of messy landscape where you don't know 100 percent where countries stand On these different, levels of conflict, and, you know, we have these backdrops. Uh, where you have a lot of countries that feel like things are an existential threat. I mean, having countries like Russia interfere in the election system of the United States, I mean, that's, that's an existential threat to the United States.

[00:13:06] Right, but on the same token, right, you know, China's economy, was really, you know, teetering on the brink. and the question is, you know, does the Chinese leadership feel that that's an existential threat to the Communist Party? I don't know the answer to that question, but, how they feel about, uh, their economic health is, Is going to drive how they respond to international situations and, you know, clearly in Europe, the war in Europe is a defining conflict, that, you know, really revolves around the fact that, you know, it doesn't matter what the U.

[00:13:48] S. made an agreement with the U. S. S. R. with Russia on anything over any period of time when a group of people in a country, you know, mobilize to have a democracy. You know, international agreements about whether they should or shouldn't be part of the Russian orbit really go out the window because it's not relevant.

[00:14:07] something that's interesting that we're talking about is top, looking at the top from a governmental perspective, we have these democracies that are at stake, and then we have on the second pillar of the second vertical, um, communist governments and dictatorships.

[00:14:26] But then if you go down to like the, the individual, the people, the individual level, they might individuals in these regions, whether it's Europe, the Middle East, here in North America, they might start to look at how the government is impacting their personal lives. And this relates back to, you know, questions surrounding.

[00:14:47] the pandemic, questions surrounding, their personal wealth, right? The value of their personal wealth and how, you know, for example, here in the United States, all of a sudden we're at, the debt to GDP ratio is at 120 percent we're suffering from inflation and people are still working just as hard.

[00:15:05] We might see some kind of a movement. Closer to technology where a third pillar is built, where an individual might say we're in this post trust and post truth moment. I don't trust, and I don't, I don't trust the government. I don't trust the media. I don't trust everything that I'm seeing on social media.

[00:15:25] and it's time for me to take care of my own possessions and move my, use technology to move my property and move my possessions onto the blockchain with cryptocurrency in a portable way that's, you know, non invasive from these entities that I might not trust anymore. And, you know, it's kind of interesting when you look at that, as it relates to people living under a communist rule, but also people living right here in the United States.

[00:15:51] Well, I do think universally, you know, no matter where you are, There is this lack of trust in institutions and government. And and that's again. A very dangerous thing, because if I'm having to take matters into my own hands. And we have, you know, many highly armed societies, you have the potential for the breakdown in law and order.

[00:16:15] And, and that, that puts everybody at risk. So, you know, I think that when we think about technology, whether that's social media and, and how we rely on it, or whether it's the banking system, you know, one has to be, thoughtful about how to restore at least the sufficient number of institutions that we can function.

[00:16:40] and so I understand why, you know, people would move into crypto, you know, that makes sense. I mean, it makes sense to me. On the other hand, you know, a lot of, you know, criminal organizations, you know, and other kinds of, uh, uh, uh, you know, some of these regimes we're talking about also, uh, use those markets.

[00:17:02] and so, you know, what's the lesson of that? The lesson of that. Is that we have money laundering rules, that protect you from that in the banking system and the regular banking system. and so, you know, I understand the urge, you know, you hear these stories about people who are tech billionaires, you know, uh, having space programs because they want to build, you know, uh, some kind of living space up on the moon in case things go bad here.

[00:17:30] Well, like, that's not. Yeah. You know, a good solution, you know, we really need to, really start seeking political leaders, that have a vision about how to restore institutions. And, and, you know, I don't see that emerging yet in the United States, honestly. and that's a concern, right? because that's really what's needed here is a real effort, especially to reform institutions.

[00:17:57] You know, when you look at the subject of climate change and international debt, clearly, uh, the World Bank, which was, you know, set up during the time of the Marshall Plan, uh, needs to be completely restructured and reformed. you know, they put out a paper on reform. I mean, that is what's been proposed is completely inadequate, right?

[00:18:18] So, you know, how we set up the international global system, the fact that, I mean, truly, countries that were outside that system, whether you're talking about China or Russia, they've been trying to devolve that system, you know, as part of their policy, Because, in part, because for their own power struggle, but, you know, the United States is not completely innocent in this thing.

[00:18:45] We've weaponized. The financial system with our sanctions policies and and and other kinds of policies. So, we really need to, step back and look for a kind of a leadership that can restore our trust in the institutions we need by reforming those institutions. And if you think about. You know, Roosevelt and the New Deal or other times in history that has happened.

[00:19:12] Right? So it's not just a given that we're going down the path of World War and we're going to have crisis everywhere. I mean, you know, with the right kind of leadership, you know, we could have a restoration of institutions and a reform of institutions in a way. That's more workable for all Americans and in a way that, you know, brings better prosperity in Europe and, and, and not, and even in these countries where things are going badly, you know, the Chinese could reform their system in a way, that would make it, more, productive for its citizens.

[00:19:44] Let me add to that, that in the Middle East. You know, you've had, um, reformers, and, you know, there have been fits and starts, but you have had, you know, diversification of economies, you know, in the United Arab Emirates, now in Saudi Arabia, uh, with different focus, and that's a positive outcome, for, for the populations there, so, you know, how do we stay the course for that, um, and not get dragged down into monumental conflicts, you know, you asked me, you know, what do I think, you know, happens to the efforts at Middle East peace?

[00:20:20] I mean, I think because those countries have made, many countries in the Middle East have made good progress in, you know, diversifying their economies or, you know, in the case of Morocco and some other countries of moving to being a promising hub for clean energy, you know, those countries and those populations need to stay the course and need to try to pursue peaceful outcomes, there's a long history of war, tied to oil crises and oil crises tied to war and we need to move away from that.

[00:20:53] We need to take this opportunity of, a changing economy and, and enabling technology to get out of these. Paradigms of, of conflict.

[00:21:06] Amy, do you think that the weaponization of the, financial markets or, or the, the, sanctions even work anymore? I mean, if you look at where we are as it relates to, Russia and Iran over the past, you know, 12, 18 months, it seems like, you know, sanctions and, and, um, these types of mechanisms. aren't even effective anymore.

[00:21:29] They've created their own, economies and trade partners where almost irrelevant as it relates to us, you know, putting sanctions on them. And what's your opinion on that?

[00:21:41] I mean, I 100 percent agree with your statement. and clearly what you're doing is you're linking the economies of countries, that, are acting destructively within the international system, and creating opportunities, for the breakdown of the international system. So, You know, I, I, uh, I used to work for a woman named Wanda Jablonski, who was a very famous, uh, journalist in the energy field, you know, back in the day.

[00:22:10] And, um, you know, she sat me down one time, I'd done a set of articles, that had angered a government in the Middle East. And she sat me down and, um, I didn't know if she's going to tell me that, you know, I got to stop doing that. and then, of course, she had many stories of times that she'd done the same thing.

[00:22:32] And so she shared some of those with me. And then she told me that the one thing I need to be careful about was not to get in a conflict with too many parties at once. And, you know, it's been a life lesson. I've never forgotten she told me that. And I would tell you that, you know, the United States with all these sanctions and all these policies, you know, has really forgotten that lesson.

[00:22:58] and I think that's part of why, how we got to where we are today, is that I agree with you. Sanctions as a tool is a very blunt instrument, because we've used it, overused it. Countries absolutely know how to bypass it. It has created these trade alliances between Iran and North Korea or between, China and Russia on oil or, you know, it's done these things that are now producing unintended consequences that, you know, taken in the aggregate are very dangerous.

[00:23:30] And so, people are always struggling, especially Americans are always struggling to come up with a way to, you know, try to influence other countries in a way that doesn't lead to actually a military engagement. but maybe we've been a little lazy on the diplomacy side and a little quick to use, sanctions to please, you know, our constituencies at home.

[00:23:56] without really thinking through whether that's going to be an effective mechanism or not.

[00:24:01] other thing that plays into it is that we have these chaos agents that are running some of these countries now that might be looking at, you The situation, here in the States as an opportunity to, take advantage of, right? Like America's military is spread thin. Our economy is not as strong as it could be.

[00:24:20] And, you know, to what role does that, that chaos agency take a place? as far as like, perhaps the next 12, 18, 24 months, you know, on a global, on a global scale.

[00:24:33] Oh, I, I mean, that's, like I said, that's an existential threat to the safety of not just Americans, but I think peoples all around the world. I mean, I don't think it's, I think it's just a bigger risk, as big a risk to Americans as it is to people living in Russia or people living in China or people living in Iran.

[00:24:54] like you say, people want to get up in the morning and go about their daily life.

[00:24:57] Right.

[00:24:58] and, this younger generation doesn't believe in any of these institutions. You know, you got Airbnb disrupting the hotel industry and, and, and people have become billionaires, you know, disrupting institutions.

[00:25:12] But, you know, there are reasons why we had, like, a regulated real estate market or a regulated hotel market. Because of the dangers that come when these institutions don't have, you know, public oversight and I just have a generational, you know, I'm big on disruption. I mean, there's just no question in the energy space that disruption is going to bring a positive outcome.

[00:25:41] you know, oil has been, I mean, everybody, you know, on that sector talks about the magic of oil and how it brought all this economic development. You know, to me, I've been watching that sector for decades and it's brought a lot of death and destruction. Truly.

[00:25:54] So do you think all of this, this shredding then is going to accelerate, um, use of energy technology, renewables, et cetera? Do you think this is going to be a moment to actually push people deeper into the space?

[00:26:08] you know, ironically. The more there's chaos and the more we don't solve climate change, in my opinion, the more people are going to want to take their energy, you know, situation into their own hands. And that can be unbelievably enabling, for clean energy, because the technology exists today for you to put a solar, you know, solar system in your, your home or in your, you know, if you're a group of people living in an apartment or, you know, whatever.

[00:26:35] you know, we have the technology today that you can. Thank you. Build that system and you can either integrate the battery of your car if you had an EV or buy a battery system for everybody's home or everybody's apartment or everybody in a town. and you could organize yourself so that whatever happens in the Middle East or any place else, as long as you can repair your system after a storm, which, you know, you can do if you have the, you know, have the technicians, you can be completely self sufficient and more and more people are going to want that, you know, going forward, and as the cost of those technologies come down, which, which they will.

[00:27:15] Thank you. and are doing, then it becomes affordable for some town or community to consider that and, um, or even at the individual level. And so I, I do think it could be unbelievably enabling. and then when we get there, it's kind of democratizing. So, you know, we're coming on the 50th anniversary of the 1973 oil crisis.

[00:27:41] I've been writing about energy since I was in high school. And I never thought about. The impact it had on me getting up at 5 o'clock in the morning with my father on the way to school, which school didn't start till 8, to have to stand 3, sit with him for 3 hours in line while he waited to get gasoline on the odd license plate day, you know, we had one gasoline station in our town and, and, you know, to me, this idea that everybody in the world could, you know, use solar and some kind of storage technology.

[00:28:14] And we would completely move away from the geopolitical conflict that comes about from oil. I mean, that's just a miracle to me when I go all the way back to like, you know, kindergarten me. that's just an amazing, that could be an amazing outcome.

[00:28:31] I agree. I agree. And it's interesting because it goes back to this concept of self sovereignty again, self sovereignty of my energy, self sovereignty of my Finances, I don't need to rely on these centralized entities, whether it's the government or a third party provider, it gives me the ability to literally own my future.

[00:28:52] Well, so here's the real question, and we're facing that question in looking at what happened in the Middle East, you know, recently. That's all great, but then what do I do to manage my personal safety? Because in the end, that's the role of government, right? And that's what we're talking about in the Middle East, right?

[00:29:14] We've had this failure of governments to be able to protect and provide personal safety. And, you know, even here in the United States, the debate about gun control, you know, is partly also about that, right? So, on the one hand, you have people saying, well, listen, I have to have a gun because I have to take care of my personal safety.

[00:29:34] but we know from societies that broke down. you know, including Iraq and Lebanon and places like that, that, you know, having personal malicious and personal weaponry is, you know, not the solution. Right? So we have to make a distinction between what are the important roles of government? And why do we have government?

[00:29:55] And, and, and what, how do we select our leaders and make sure that government's doing what it's supposed to be doing? And then how do we protect ourselves? From government overreaching, you know, is it necessary for government to keep us safe? To have a camera on every street corner in America so we know at all times where everybody is?

[00:30:16] And then you're going to connect that now to my card and charge me a congestion tax, right? Like, you know, we're getting to this area where technology is so enabling that it becomes dangerous. You know, in Venezuela, you have an identity card, and if you show up at a rally against the government, it activates your identity card in a way that you can't buy food.

[00:30:38] Right? So we have to, you know, we have to think through. how much independence do we want? You know, independence can be a great thing for solving climate change, for, you know, ensuring that our, our financial assets are safe. but then when we take the flip side and we talk about our personal safety, as individuals or as clans, you know, we're not going to be able to actually protect our personal safety.

[00:31:03] Um, and we run the risk that, you know, everybody who has a grudge against their neighbor becomes a danger. So... You know, and that, you know, multiplied by all the, you know, frozen conflicts between ethnic groups, and other kinds of, uh, history, you know, internationally, you know, that can't be the system.

[00:31:23] Right? So, this is where I think we're having a breakdown of understanding of how do I. Mobilize the sort of global vision that the younger generation, certain members of the younger generation have about themselves, that they're global citizens and they can go and have festivals all around the world together and do that safely.

[00:31:46] Renting an Airbnb or sleeping on the couch of a stranger that they don't even know, you know, how do we either get to that society and ensure our personal safety, right? when, you know, the history of humankind is there always going to be people who, seek power or seek other kinds of violence for a variety of reasons, you know, how do we set up, you know, a global system and a global society where we can utilize.

[00:32:14] These technologies for good and still have the guardrails that mean that I stay personally safe. And I just don't think we have the answer to that right now. I think we're just in a state of turmoil where we see the potential of how we can all individually use these technologies, but we haven't figured out how to protect ourselves from governments or other kinds of players also using these technologies in a way that's harmful to our personal safety.

[00:32:43] Amy, in, in, um, like you've given me a tremendous amount of time and I really appreciate it. what we do with each guest is we kind of have everybody do a prediction of sorts with the words, some future day. And I think where you just left off, it would be really interesting to do that. So for example, like if I was to lead you, like in some future day, technology will have a positive impact on communities because, or how, or something like this.

[00:33:11] Can you give us a sentence or two where it's, it, it kind of leads into that futuristic vision?

[00:33:18] I hope that some future day, this younger generation will use these technologies to unify against the forces of evil worldwide. And they'll use it to keep themselves safe, to crowdsource themselves, not for... violence, against historical grudges and here in the United States, not for means to loot stores and gain, you know, possessions, but that this generation could unify itself to harness this technology To bring us to the world that we really want to see, which is a world where people use this technology to have more leisure time, to have more things they can do with that leisure time.

[00:34:09] That's enjoyable to bring an end to poverty, to use it so that there's universal access to energy at an affordable price, which 100 percent is possible given the technologies that are out there. these are the things. You know, I would like to see, people do with this technologies that are coming these all possible and we need to stand up to stand up against the use of these technologies in a way that they harm people.

[00:34:37] Amy, thank you so much for all your time over the past two, two days. I really do appreciate it.

[00:34:43] Listen, Mark, thank you for doing this podcast and thank you for having me.

[00:34:47] ​